Herding effects in order driven markets: The rise and fall of gurus

We introduce an order driver market model with heterogeneous traders that imitate each other on a dynamic network structure. The communication structure evolves endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents performance. We assess under which assumptions imitation, among otherway noise traders, can give rise to the emergence of gurus and their rise and fall in popularity over time. We study the wealth distribution of gurus, followers and non followers and show that traders have an incentive to imitate and to be imitated since herding turns out to be profitable

Numerical simulations of strong wind situations near the Mediteranean French Coast: comparison with FETCH data

A detailed analysis is made of some typical strong wind situations near the French Mediterranean coast. Special attention has been paid to the wind from the north-northwest in the Gulf of Lion, also called the mistral. The analysis is made from both the synoptic and mesoscale point of view with the aid of numerical simulations carried out with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to study the main atmospheric, climatic, and meteorological characteristics of this wind in the Gulf of Lion. Simulations were made with this model during the periods of 20-22 March and 24-26 March 1998. Afterward, a comparison was made with the meteorological measurements collected during the international Flux, Etat de la Mer et Te´le´de´tection en Condition de Fetch Variable (FETCH) campaign (Gulf of Lion, March-April 1998). The comparison between the simulated wind fields and the values measured by the coastal meteorological stations, an oceanographic buoy, and the ship Atalante at sea help to give full understanding of the complicated physical processes that characterize strong wind situations in coastal zone

Why do financial markets asymmetrically smile? A simple formula in the multi-factor Heston model

A simple approach to determining the Gaussian kernel that constitutes the backbone of the multi-factor Heston model is proposed based on a suitable expansion in powers of volatilities of volatilities. This analysis provides Black-Scholes-like formulas for pricing European vanilla options, allowing for accurate approximations of the option prices under the multi-factor Heston model up to volatilities of volatilities on the order of 50%. The analysis also leads to a simple formula for the implied volatility showing that changes in the convexity of the volatility smile are due only to price skewness, and an easy formula to reproduce volatility indices via the realized volatility. Interestingly, the variance of the Gaussian kernel is equal to the variance of the continuously compounded return in the case of the Heston model. The empirical analyses presented assess the potential of our approach to capture market distortions while adequately forecasting the dynamics of the VIX index

Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship

We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citi zenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We nd that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors - conflict,, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs- that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade

Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship

We analyze the relationship between natives’ attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citizenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual’s ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors—conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs—that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade

Atorvastatin combined to interferon to verify the efficacy (ACTIVE) in relapsing-remitting active multiple sclerosis patients: a longitudinal controlled trial of combination therapy.

A large body of evidence suggests that, besides their cholesterol-lowering effect, statins exert anti-inflammatory action. Consequently, statins may have therapeutic potential in immune-mediated disorders such as multiple sclerosis. Our objectives were to determine safety, tolerability and efficacy of low-dose atorvastatin plus high-dose interferon beta-1a in multiple sclerosis patients responding poorly to interferon beta-1a alone. Relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients, aged 18–50 years, with contrast-enhanced lesions or relapses while on therapy with interferon beta-1a 44 mg (three times weekly) for 12 months, were randomized to combination therapy (interferon+atorvastatin 20mg per day; group A) or interferon alone (group B) for 24 months. Patients underwent blood analysis and clinical assessment with the Expanded Disability Status Scale every 3 months, and brain gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging at screening, and 12 and 24 months thereafter. Primary outcome measure was contrast-enhanced lesion number. Secondary outcome measures were number of relapses, EDSS variation and safety laboratory data. Forty-five patients were randomized to group A (n 1⁄4 21) or B (n 1⁄4 24). At 24 months, group A had significantly fewer contrast-enhanced lesions versus baseline (p 1⁄4 0.007) and significantly fewer relapses versus the two pre-randomization years (p < 0.001). At survival analysis, the risk for a 1-point EDSS increase was slightly higher in group B than in group A (p 1⁄4 0.053). Low-dose atorvastatin may be beneficial, as add-on therapy, in poor responders to high-dose interferon beta-1a alone

A robotic mobile platform for service tasks in cultural heritage

Recently, the preservation and survey of cultural heritage goods is attracting increasing interest from the media. Several famous historical sites seem to require an increased effort to maintain their preservation. Nevertheless, it is very difficult to find sufficient funds and human resources to fulfil these needs. Accordingly, this paper outlines a specific application of service robotics to cultural heritage, with the aim to reduce the required time and costs for surveying and maintaining cultural heritage goods. These applications require careful attention paid to the proper design of a robotic mobile platform with the features necessary to fulfil tasks of architectonic survey and preservation. To this end, specific operation scenarios have been carefully described in order to identify the specific design requirements and constraints that are raised by, for example, the necessity of operation over delicate surfaces, or the presence of unevenness or obstacles. The authors then propose a design solution for a service robot fit for the analysis, survey and conservation of historical sites, as based on the characteristics of the outlined scenarios. A preliminary prototype is also described herewith, in order to show its engineering feasibility in relation to the simulated operation scenarios

A nutrition mathematical model to account for dietary supply and requirements of energy and nutrients for domesticated small ruminants: the development and evaluation of the Small Ruminant Nutrition System

A mechanistic model that predicts nutrient requirements and biological values of feeds for sheep (Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System; CNCPS-S) was expanded to include goats and the name was changed to the Small Ruminant Nutrition System (SRNS). The SRNS uses animal and environmental factors to predict metabolizable energy (ME) and protein, and Ca and P requirements. Requirements for goats in the SRNS are predicted based on the equations developed for CNCPS-S, modified to account for specific requirements of goats, including maintenance, lactation, and pregnancy requirements, and body reserves. Feed biological values are predicted based on carbohydrate and protein fractions and their ruminal fermentation rates, forage, concentrate and liquid passage rates, and microbial growth. The evaluation of the SRNS for sheep using published papers (19 treatment means) indicated no mean bias (MB; 1.1 g/100 g) and low root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; 3.6 g/100g) when predicting dietary organic matter digestibility for diets not deficient in ruminal nitrogen. The SRNS accurately predicted gains and losses of shrunk body weight (SBW) of adult sheep (15 treatment means; MB = 5.8 g/d and RMSPE = 30 g/d) when diets were not deficient in ruminal nitrogen. The SRNS for sheep had MB varying from -34 to 1 g/d and RSME varying from 37 to 56 g/d when predicting average daily gain (ADG) of growing lambs (42 treatment means). The evaluation of the SRNS for goats based on literature data showed accurate predictions for ADG of kids (31 treatment means; RMSEP = 32.5 g/d; r2= 0.85; concordance correlation coefficient, CCC, = 0.91), daily ME intake (21 treatment means; RMSEP = 0.24 Mcal/d g/d; r2 = 0.99; CCC = 0.99), and energy balance (21 treatment means; RMSEP = 0.20 Mcal/d g/d; r2 = 0.87; CCC = 0.90) of goats. In conclusion, the SRNS for sheep can accurately predict dietary organic matter digestibility, ADG of growing lambs and changes in SBW of mature sheep. The SRNS for goats is suitable for predicting ME intake and the energy balance of lactating and non-lactating adult goats and the ADG of kids of dairy, meat, and indigenous breeds. The SRNS model is available at http://nutritionmodels.tamu.edu

Erythema-directed digital photography for the enhanced evaluation of topical treatments for acne vulgaris.

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